Prime Ministers of Bangladesh, Sheikh Hasina, and India, Narendra Modi, will have a meeting today, Saturday, at Hyderabad House in Delhi, to discuss a plan for advancing future ties between their two close neighbors. Along with the current cooperative trend, they will talk about a variety of news stories that have the potential to improve ties even further.
Following their encounter, more than ten memorandums of understanding covering a range of areas of collaboration will probably be signed and renewed.
On a two-day visit, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina arrived in Delhi this afternoon on Friday. Kirti Vardhan Singh, India’s state minister for external affairs, met her at the airport in Palam.
According to diplomatic officials in both nations, the two prime ministers will conduct talks again, but at a new time and place. Next month’s second week is Sheikh Hasina’s scheduled visit to Beijing. The China issue appears to play a major role in the relationship between the two countries, especially in light of the shifting geopolitical landscape.
Prothom Alo has learned from diplomatic sources in Delhi and Dhaka that the two presidents would discuss issues related to water resources, energy, connectivity, economic cooperation, and more when they lay out their roadmap.
Sheikh Hasina and Narendra Modi are expected to hold three separate rounds of discussions at Hyderabad House in the first part of today, Saturday, according to multiple diplomatic sources in Delhi. In addition to their private discussions, the two leaders will hold talks first with a small group of delegates and subsequently with the entire delegation.
Bilateral concerns raised in discussions
Over the past few years, unresolved concerns between Bangladesh and India have come up in discussions. These include border killings, water sharing, and tariff and non-tariff trade barriers. This time, these concerns will also be brought up. The agenda for the talks will also cover problems related to energy, defense, connectivity, IT, and economic cooperation. The Rohingya crisis, the border situation in Myanmar, and other regional and global topics will be discussed.
There are rumors that China will come up frequently in discussions between the prime ministers of the two neighboring countries about regional and global issues. China may come up in the context of bilateral problems like connectivity and the sharing of Teesta water.
According to diplomatic sources, Vinay Kwatra, the Indian secretary of external affairs, had preliminary talks about prime minister Sheikh Hasina’s trip to Delhi during his May visit to Dhaka. As a result, June 21 and 22 were chosen as the visit’s approximate dates. India was prepared to host the prime minister of Bangladesh prior to her July travel to Beijing, as planned by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. The prime minister did travel to Delhi in the interim to see Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s swearing-in ceremony. For a short while, there were concerns about whether the journey to Delhi for the swearing-in event would take precedence over this one.
According to diplomats, since the NDA alliance took power in India, it has placed a strong emphasis on close ties with its neighbors. Furthermore, as China’s sway grows throughout the region, India is placing a premium on its “Neighbourhood First” strategy.
The foreign secretary, Masud Bin Momen, stated to Prothom Alo when questioned about the matter: “Prime minister Sheikh Hasina’s India and China trips are very important for Bangladesh.” In this case, a “zero sum game” does not exist. We wish to continue having win-win relationships with every nation. India and Bangladesh’s relations have a historical background and a geographical location. We wish to avoid equating our relations with India with those of any other nation. Relationships with each and every nation have facets and viewpoints. Our concerns, priorities, and national interests will never change.
“Not limited to Teesta”
China has been a major player in discussions over Bangladesh-India relations since 2020. This was especially important because, although finalized in 2011, the treaty pertaining to the primary river shared by India and Bangladesh, the Teesta, remained unsigned. China proposed to Bangladesh the undertaking of a major river-based project called the Teesta. India was so sensitive to the issue that its foreign secretary at the time, Harsh Vardhan Shringla, traveled to Bangladesh to discuss it despite the Covid pandemic. Since then, China and Bangladesh have been unable to go forward with the Teesta project. China has been expressing enthusiasm for the project over the previous two years. However, taking into account India’s discomfort in this area, Bangladesh had adopted
This correspondent has been informed by multiple diplomatic sources in Delhi that India has developed an abrupt interest in the Teesta River. India might make a Teesta proposal that is comparable to China’s during this round of negotiations between the two presidents. Finding or investing in China can be difficult due to a number of factors, including a lack of openness. Teesta is also one of the 54 rivers that the two near neighbors share. India may argue in this case that the two nations can work together on the Teesta project and that no further funding is needed from outside sources.
Although India is rumored to be working on a different Teesta project, the financial details are still unclear. This time, the prime minister’s delegation to Delhi does not include Zahid Faruk, Bangladesh’s state minister for water resources, and Najmul Ahsan, the secretary of water resources. Therefore, even though there have been rumors of a fresh Teesta proposal from India, there is little chance that an agreement will be signed in this respect.
Bangladesh is determined not to compromise its strong friendship with India. India has to continue to have faith in Bangladesh. Moving forward with relationships requires mutual respect and trust.
Railways, ports, and Rupee-Taka
The prime minister’s entourage in Delhi includes Governor Abdur Rauf Talukdar of Bangladesh Bank and Ms. Shahriar Kader Siddique, Secretary of the Economic Relations Division (ERD). Talks about transactions between the two nations in rupees instead of dollars are likely to occur. The speed at which the Indian loan arrangement with Bangladesh can be implemented and the terms under which additional credit can be granted will also be discussed. Following their discussion, the two leaders will make a joint announcement that will address the loan deal issue.
According to a diplomatic source in Delhi, India is a reliable ally of Bangladesh. A loan deal on new terms and discussions regarding rupee-taka transactions show that India wants to establish itself as a competitive alternative to China. Ultimately, China desires to conduct business in local currency and lend Bangladesh yuan equal to US $5 billion (USD $500 crore) for trade aid. India believes that Bangladesh has other options in such a case besides China. India is prepared to step up as well.
India has prioritized railways when it comes to connectivity with Bangladesh for more than ten years. Reverting to pre-partition communications for the movement of persons and goods between the two nations is something they are emphasizing. India is interested in communicating with its northeast region through Bangladeshi land. India may bring up the subject of a railway connecting Bangladesh and Bhutan through India during these negotiations. Bangladesh has given thought to the issue of private sector railroads. India can make a recommendation in this regard to ensure that Dhaka receives no special treatment from any nation when it comes to the railway’s privatization.
According to sources in Delhi, India might make a bid for the Mongla port. India is thinking about building a terminal in the port of Mongla. It should be noted that Bangladesh had borrowed money from China to upgrade the Mongla port.
M Humayun Kabir, a former ambassador and president of the Bangladesh Enterprise Institute (BEI), responded to Prothom Alo’s questions regarding the issue by stating that Bangladesh’s relations with China and India differ greatly in both scope and depth. The relationships are not similar. Thus, India and Bangladesh should be seen as having bilateral relations. Combining the China issue with these relationships would be foolish. Bangladesh will engage with different countries for its own benefit. Furthermore, Bangladesh would not take any actions that could jeopardize its strong friendship with India as a responsible and good neighbor. India has to continue to have faith in Bangladesh. Moving forward with relationships requires mutual respect and trust.
Bangladesh has a self-interested motive in continuing to collaborate with different nations and groups. Bangladesh must so convey to other nations that Dhaka’s cooperation with any nation will not harm those nations’ interests.
The difficulty of maintaining balance
Analysts believe that China’s influence over South Asia, especially the Indo-Pacific region, is nothing new. India is unlikely to alter this perspective quickly. In actuality, India will strengthen its ties with its neighbors in light of China’s growing influence in the area. China will probably keep providing financial support after all. However, India wants to demonstrate to its neighbors that it is a stronger option and a supporter during difficult times. India will emphasize how it has helped the Maldives and Sri Lanka throughout their financial crises.
According to diplomatic commentators, prime minister Sheikh Hasina’s visits to Beijing and Delhi have taken on the role of “balancing visits” as a result of the current state of geopolitics. Bangladesh is also facing a struggle with this. Bangladesh has a self-interested motive in continuing to collaborate with different nations and groups. Bangladesh must so clarify to other nations that Dhaka’s cooperation with any nation would not jeopardize other nations’ interests.
Speaking by phone to Prothom Alo yesterday, Thursday, vice president of India’s Observer Research Foundation (ORF), Harsh Panth, stated that, given the current situation, China will unavoidably come up in the two prime ministers’ discussions. The Teesta project is not the only topic at hand. India will be interested in learning about and comprehending the development of Bangladesh’s ties with China. Additionally, they will emphasize India’s perspective on Bangladesh’s relationship with China. Overall, Delhi is eager to learn more about the relationship between Beijing and Dhaka. He believes that Sheikh Hasina chose the appropriate course of action as a leader by traveling to Delhi prior to her visit to Beijing.
